This report previews the changes in the latest U.S. projections for corn and soybeans (from the USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections), and presents statistics on the historical scale of accuracy in the projections for the same two crops. This is followed by a brief examination of trends that may be increasing or decreasing that accuracy in various variables.
Every year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) release their annual projections for agricultural commodity markets (USDA ERS (2021),OECD/FAO (2021)). These reports are useful for forward-looking policy analysis as well as planning. This marketing year, both agencies have made their projections assuming that the economy will begin recovering from the pandemic. However, the OECD baseline projections seem to be significantly more optimistic than the USDA projections for two major crops grown in Ohio: corn and soybeans. OECD projects that corn and soybean prices will increase more sharply over the next decade than USDA expects despite similar projected trends in yields.